A Message from the Superintendent: Dr. Valenti Discusses Enrollment Trends

Dear Members of the Eastchester Community,

The Long View

For the past three years, Eastchester’s student enrollment has been slipping about 1% per year, with 2954 students registered this year compared to 3050 in 2022. The 10-year demographics study I commissioned from Western Suffolk BOCES predicted a continued decline this decade through 2032, when Eastchester’s estimated enrollment could drop to 2000 students.

Our elementary enrollment today stands at 1329 students. Next September, we project K-5 enrollment at 1274, a drop of 55 students. 

At the Middle School, we have 695 students enrolled today in Grades 6-8 . That number is expected to grow to 704 students next school year. 

The High School will decline only slightly—by 10 students—from 927 to 917 for Grades 9-12 next school year. 

We are estimating a 1.5% drop in enrollment in total enrollment (K-12) for next year to about 2900-2925 students. 

Does Lower Enrollment Mean Fewer Teachers?

Not always!

Waverly will be experiencing the loss of one position with 18 K-1 positions predicted for 380 students next year.  However, this drop below 400 students at Waverly tells the demographic story of families having fewer children overall,  and later in life at that. 

Other demographic metrics to watch are what I call the “Normal Churn” and “Intentional Reductions.”

A good example of “Normal Churn” is a mother who contacted me recently to say she was sad to be taking her three children out of Eastchester schools because the family was moving to a larger, more affordable home up-county. 

“Intentional Reduction” is checking every family’s residence  to ensure they are Eastchester students and not living elsewhere. Over the last two years we have consciously removed six (6) regular education and three (3) special education students who live outside Eastchester. Several additional students remain under active investigation. 

That said, enrollment is not the final arbiter of staffing. Growing  stronger programs like opening the doors in Grade 8 to Regents Algebra and Earth Science increases student enrollment from 40% to 70%, allowing more students, including our special needs pupils, access to more challenging courses in Math and Science throughout their academic years. Expanded programs require more teachers. 

Adding three (3) Math and three (3) Literacy coaches at the K-5 level guarantees Eastchester will improve its Proficiency Rate to exceed 80%, placing us in the top 10 of competitive Westchester school districts. 

Hiring a School Counselor for Waverly means every one of our three elementary schools enjoys a full-time school counselor to support our students’ emotional and mental health growth. 

In Eastchester, our North Star is academic excellence and competing with the best. That means program quality will always trump simple enrollment. 

See you next week, when we discuss District and Secondary Initiatives for the next school year.

Sincerely,

Ronald D. Valenti, Ph.D.

Superintendent for Schools